Two weeks separate the two figures that initially sound like a correction: on 13 October, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported 8.0 million hectolitres of grape must for the 2026 harvest. The German Wine Institute (DWI) later put the figure at around 7.7 million. Yet the difference of roughly 300,000 hectolitres is not simply a calculation error. It shows how provisional a harvest assessment remains while grapes are still being picked and volumes are only estimates.
Both figures refer to grape must – freshly pressed grape juice – rather than the volume of finished wine. They are forecasts, not a final tally. The timing and the information available at each stage are particularly important in explaining the difference.
Two reference dates, two snapshots
Destatis published its second estimate with a reference date of 20 September. It was based on expected yields reported by around 400 volunteer harvest reporters. Their reports describe the anticipated volumes at their holdings; they do not involve weighing all the grapes harvested. Moreover, in many places the harvest was not yet complete when the survey was conducted. Weather, local damage and the subsequent course of the harvest could still alter the forecast.
On 20 October, the DWI announced a preliminary estimate based on reports from all 13 German wine-growing regions. The accompanying table is dated 21 October and adds up to 7.732 million hectolitres. Rounded, this gives the published figure of 7.7 million. The later estimate could therefore take account of a more advanced stage of the harvest and more recent regional assessments. This makes it more up to date – but not yet final.
Nor is the geographical coverage entirely identical: Brandenburg, Niedersachsen, Nordrhein-Westfalen and Schleswig-Holstein were absent from Destatis’s September estimate. According to Destatis, these states together accounted for just 0.07 per cent of the volume harvested in 2025. Their exclusion therefore has very little bearing on the national total; it is nevertheless a methodological difference that a rigorous comparison should make clear.
The regions do not move in step
The national figure masks how differently the harvest has unfolded across the regions. In October, Destatis estimated 2.4 million hectolitres for Rheinhessen, 2.1 million for the Pfalz and 1.2 million for Baden. The DWI’s later figures were 2.3 million for Rheinhessen and around 1.025 million for Baden; the Pfalz remained at 2.1 million. Such differences at regional level feed through into the national total.
The contrasting directions are particularly striking. For Rheinhessen, the DWI expected roughly the same volume as in 2025; the Pfalz was up on the previous year’s poor harvest. In the Mosel, by contrast, only 610,000 hectolitres were expected – 18 per cent less than the previous year. For Franken, the estimate was 326,000 hectolitres, a fall of 15 per cent. Destatis’s September forecast had also indicated declines in these regions, but not of exactly the same magnitude. The picture for a wine-growing region can therefore still shift depending on the reference date.
The DWI points to differences in rainfall distribution and the water-holding capacity of soils. This helps put the geographical variation into context: a dry summer does not affect everywhere equally, and soils differ in how much water they retain and make available. This alone, however, cannot establish the volume produced by an individual estate or vineyard site. The overall estimate brings together many locations and decisions made by individual growers.
A forecast is not yet a final assessment
Both institutions present their figures as expected volumes. Destatis explicitly highlights the uncertainties inherent in subjective yield estimates and possible changes caused by weather, disease or pests. The DWI’s use of the term “final estimate” likewise does not mean that an official final result is already available: it denotes the institute’s later, more comprehensive estimate.
Ultimately, the vintage assessment depends not on which forecast was published first or last, but on the volume established once the harvest is complete and the survey results have been analysed. Until then, the reliable statement is not “Germany has harvested 8.0” or “Germany has harvested 7.7 million hectolitres”. It is this: the estimates are in this order of magnitude, the regional distribution is uneven, and the precise total remains provisional. It is precisely this distinction that turns several figures into a useful assessment of volumes – rather than an apparent contradiction.
Original reviewed by the editors · 6 November 2026
