A wine harvest can be larger than the previous year’s and still fall below average. It can also appear to be different sizes in two publications without either necessarily being wrong. Both apply to Germany’s 2026 vintage. To understand the figures, the first thing to check is their reference dates.
Publication date is not the survey reference date
The Destatis forecast published on 13 October puts wine must volume at 8.0 million hectolitres: five per cent more than in 2025, four per cent less than the 2020–2025 average. Its data, however, are as at 20 September. Around 400 voluntary respondents estimate the expected must yields at their estates. This is not a comprehensive measurement of wine already in cellars; experience and assumptions about how the rest of the harvest will unfold also play a part.
The more recent DWI release of 20 October, by contrast, draws on the final regional estimates from all 13 winegrowing regions. Its table is dated 21 October and totals 7.732 million hectolitres. Here, “final” still refers to an estimate, not the definitive official harvest result. Nor are the two publications entirely separate exercises in measurement: the DWI table cites the German Winegrowers’ Association and Destatis as its data sources.
Two benchmarks for the same volume
In rounded terms, the DWI reports 7.7 million hectolitres, on a par with the previous year. Compared with 7.664 million hectolitres in 2025, the table shows a small increase, rounded to one per cent. At the same time, the forecast is ten per cent below the ten-year average shown there.
This does not contradict Destatis’s figure of four per cent below average: its comparison period covers six years, while the DWI’s covers ten. The harvest estimate has also changed. The two shortfalls are therefore not directly comparable indicators of losses. To put a harvest into perspective, the reference period is always needed alongside the volume.
Mosel, Franken, Pfalz: three different outcomes
For the Mosel, the more recent table forecasts 610,000 hectolitres, 18 per cent less than in 2025 and 13 per cent below the ten-year average. Franken, at 326,000 hectolitres, is down 15 and 20 per cent respectively. The Pfalz, by contrast, gains twelve per cent compared with 2025: its 2.1 million hectolitres nevertheless remain five per cent below the longer-term average. A recovery is not the same as a large harvest.
The DWI points to rainfall distribution and the water-holding capacity of soils to explain the regional differences. Yet conditions also vary within a region. In the VDP review, Pfalz winegrower Franz Wehrheim reports particular difficulties with young plantings and light soils. Dorothee Zilliken, by contrast, describes her observations in Mosel, Saar and Ruwer as showing that vines had a good water supply despite the warmth. Such estate reports complement the statistics, but are no substitute for a regional average.
Less must does not necessarily mean better wine
Healthy grapes and high quality were already being highlighted at the official opening of the Franken harvest on 3 September. Later industry reports also take a decidedly positive view of the vintage. In the VDP report, Sebastian Fürst describes a very early harvest in Franken, with healthy, ripe grapes.
These are attributed assessments from producers, not independent judgements on all the finished wines. Volume statistics can neither confirm nor refute them. They describe how much must is expected – not how balanced or long-lived a wine will be. For the 2026 vintage, two questions therefore remain separate: how much was harvested? And what will it become in the cellar?
Original reviewed by the editors · 5 November 2026
