For German wine producers, the US market cannot simply be replaced by another. The export figures for 2025 had already made that clear: according to the German Wine Institute (DWI), the total value of German wine exports fell by two per cent to 377 million euros. Wine shipments to the USA were down eleven per cent on the previous year; their export value fell by 19 per cent to 51 million euros. The DWI Export Forum on 28 October 2026 in Oppenheim therefore turned its attention to Sweden and Finland, among other markets. The crucial question is not which country can replace the USA, but which markets suit a producer’s products, capacity and distribution model.
The Nordic countries offer no uniform answer here. In the DWI’s statistics for 2024, the value of German wine exports to Sweden stood at 17 million euros, and to Finland at 13 million euros. Volumes followed different paths: compared with 2023, Sweden recorded a decline of 10.5 per cent to 72,000 hectolitres, while Finland saw an increase of 6.4 per cent to 47,000 hectolitres. Any comparison with business in the USA also needs a sense of proportion: the USA remains a substantially larger individual market for Germany, while each Nordic country has its own trading structures.
Different routes to market
In Sweden and Finland, state retail monopolies shape wine sales. In Sweden, Systembolaget is the principal retailer for alcoholic drinks above certain alcohol thresholds; in Finland, Alko plays a corresponding role. For a wine estate, this means that entering the market involves more than finding an importer and sending out a price list. Products must fit the respective procurement and listing procedures. Supply capacity, pricing calculations, product information and the ability to respond to tenders become part of the export workload.
Systembolaget describes supplier approval as a separate, multi-stage process: among other requirements, companies need certain permits and must provide product data through designated systems. Alko also publishes requirements for suppliers and product listings. Such procedures provide a comparatively clearly regulated route to market, but guarantee neither a listing nor sustained order volumes. A local importer or an experienced agency can make the process easier; responsibility for suitable products, reliable deliveries and commercially viable terms remains with the producer.
The US market: bigger, but no easier
Business in the USA is structurally different: importers and distribution partners are important links in the chain, while sales are organised across several tiers and regional markets. There are also tariff and exchange-rate risks, alongside the work involved in logistics, communication and support for retailers and the hospitality trade. The latest DWI figures show how quickly political and economic conditions can affect the bottom line: according to the institute, the average ex-cellar export price of German wines shipped to the USA fell by 41 cents to 4.43 euros per litre in 2025.
A market with greater revenue potential does not automatically require less work. Producers need to assess whether they can reliably fulfil larger orders, whether a partner will genuinely position their wines in the market, and whether the revenue achievable will cover distribution and account management costs. In Sweden or Finland, meanwhile, a smaller-scale business may come with specific requirements for tenders and product ranges. For small wine estates, the deciding factor is therefore not population size alone, but also whether they can commit the staff and time needed for market development, translations, documentation and regular contact.
Diversifying means choosing
The DWI Forum announced Sweden and Finland as its focus markets and offered discussions with market contacts. Detailed findings from the event are not available in the documents reviewed. Yet the available figures and the different routes to market already make one thing clear: “the north” is not a ready-made export strategy. Sweden and Finland must be considered individually — just as individual US regions and distribution partners must be.
For robust planning for 2027, this means not confusing opportunities with a sweeping narrative about replacement markets. Export diversification can reduce dependence on a single destination country. But it also spreads the workload: every additional market requires contacts, suitable offers and a realistic assessment of the producer’s own supply capacity. The clear-headed guiding question is therefore not where US revenue can be replaced like for like, but which relationships a wine estate can sustain over the long term — and which orders actually make financial sense for its business.
Original reviewed by the editors · 5 November 2026
