A first order does not yet make a viable export business. For a German wine estate, the crucial calculations begin where the trade fair contact ends: who gets the bottles into the market, who pays to promote them, and when will a second order follow?
From 10 to 12 November 2026, ProWine Shanghai provides a meeting place for this purpose. According to the German Wine Institute, the German pavilion it organises brings together 45 wine estates and wine trading companies; more than ten exhibitors are entering the Chinese market for the first time. Exhibiting together makes presenting their wines easier. The commercial work behind it remains specific to each business.
Not one market, but routes to market
China is not an untapped sales territory. In March 2026, Wine Australia describes a market in transition: cautious consumers, fewer traditional business dinners, but also interest in lighter wine styles. This creates openings for German white wines, but offers no guarantee of sales.
When choosing a partner, the decisive factor is therefore less the promise of nationwide reach than which customers an importer actually reaches. Importing and selling on are different tasks. A company can take delivery of stock without itself having strong access to restaurants, specialist retailers or online customers. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) accordingly describes a branching network of routes through importers, wholesalers and different sales channels.
The businesses’ own statements show how differently German producers approach these routes: Reichsrat von Buhl names Vin Forever as its partner for China. The Rheinhessen estate Weingut Volker Barth points to a Chinese website and listings on JD and Taobao. Neither sales volumes nor returns can be inferred from this. What does become clear, however, is that digital distribution also needs a practical local structure.
What remains of the bottle price
In commercial terms, two sets of calculations need to be kept separate. On the Chinese side, the final price must cover transport, import duties and taxes, storage and the various links in the distribution chain. For the winery, by contrast, what matters is how much of the agreed revenue remains after production, export-related services and its own sales work. Who bears which costs depends on the delivery agreements.
For budgeting purposes, this means that the list needs to include more than the stand, flights and sample bottles. Depending on the circumstances, translations, label adjustments, sales materials, training and further trips also need to be added. The USDA report highlights both digital engagement and wine knowledge as elements of market development. Both take time or money — even after the fair.
AUSSENWIRTSCHAFT AUSTRIA offers an important counterpoint to promises of the widest possible distribution. Its industry report advises against granting a partner exclusivity for the whole of China at the outset. Agreements limited in time and geographical scope should first establish whether the partnership works. The implication for business calculations is that reach must translate into accessible customers and verifiable sales.
The clock runs until the repeat order
The documents reviewed do not provide a reliable general timeframe within which German wine estates can expect their sales in China to cover their costs. A trade fair calendar is not a sales plan. Samples, the first order, delivery and repeat orders each represent distinct commercial stages.
A useful measure would therefore not be the volume shipped alone. Paid invoices, the partner’s sell-through and repeat orders on commercially viable terms are more telling. Payment terms also determine how long the business has to finance costs upfront. The editorial conclusion remains: China can be an additional route to market. Whether it pays off is shown not by the size of the first order, but by what remains in the business after the work, ongoing support and waiting time.
Original reviewed by the editors · 5 November 2026
